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Meta Stock: Without The Metaverse (NASDAQ:META)



Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg Testifies Before The House Financial Services Committee

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News

Investment Thesis

“What’s in a name? That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet”

I think Juliet might have been onto something here, although she probably didn’t have Mark Zuckerberg in mind – and the recent name change to Meta (NASDAQ:META) hasn’t done much to shift the not-so-sweet smell of Facebook. In fact, whilst the metaverse has certainly been hyped up over the past year (particularly following this name change), I believe the Ready Player One version of the metaverse is decades away, and may not even happen at all.

As such, I hope you’ll humor me slightly in this article, as I’ll be looking at Meta excluding the metaverse – which I believe to be a view much more grounded in reality.

Business Overview

Meta’s mission is ‘to give people the power to build community and bring the world closer together’, and whilst the latter is somewhat debatable, the company has certainly changed the way we interact and connect forever.

Meta’s main offerings include its family of four apps: Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, which have a combined 2.87 billion daily active people – that is, approximately 36% of the world’s population use at least one of these apps on a daily basis, which I find both mind blowing but also completely unsurprising.

Trend in Meta daily active people

Meta Q1’22 Earnings Presentation

The business model of Meta is fairly easy to understand, as they generate the majority of their income through advertising. Marketers can purchase ads that appear in multiple places including on Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and third-party application websites. Given the 2.87 billion eyes on their Family of Apps every single day, it’s no surprise to see the number of advertisers looking to use Meta’s platforms to get their brand out there.

The Good

Meta’s business model clearly has some core strengths that has helped propel it to its current behemoth level, and we’ll start with the network effect. I think Facebook itself has to be the quintessential network effect business, as it couldn’t be more obvious. If one person signs up to Facebook, they’ll convince family and friends to join, who will then go and convince their family and friends to join, and this is how Facebook has historically been able to grow so rapidly. Given that the company already has 36% of the globe looking at its apps, this specific network effect is going to ease up – but if anyone wants to connect with family and friends, there is really only one place for them to go.

Yet there is still one very strong network that exists with Meta, which is virtually unmatched. The Facebook platform has 1.96 billion daily active users as of Q1’22, and the number of users across Meta’s apps has been in the billions for years. These users provide enormous amounts of data for Meta to use when deciding where to place adverts to ensure the optimum ROI for advertisers. Each time an ad is placed anywhere in Meta’s universe, the company is able to analyze the data and figure out the best place to target the most appropriate users for each specific advert

The network effect? Meta is one of the largest ad companies in the world, and so they have a huge number of adverts posted every second. Each advert results in more data for Meta to learn from, and more data leads to improved ad placements and more optimal ROI for advertisers, and improved advertising results and higher ROIs will lead to more advertisers using Meta, and therefore even more adverts for Meta to learn from. A virtuous cycle that has served the company extremely well so far.

Meta also has extremely impressive financial fortitude.

Trend of Meta financials

Meta SEC Filings / Excel

The Family of Apps EBIT margin nearing 50%? Almost $40 billion in free cash flow for 2021? Just under $50 billion in net cash and zero debt?!

Meta might constantly feel like it’s having to weather a storm, but it sure does have the financials to handle it. Unfortunately, it’s not going to be plain sailing just yet.

The Bad

If you invest in any social media platform, I’m sure you’re more than aware of the uproar surrounding Apple’s (AAPL) privacy changes. These new policies added a new level of opaqueness and difficulty for advertisers when it comes to obtaining data from their users, and as such it will damage Meta’s strong network effect that we just looked at – and this was highlighted by CFO Dave Wehner in their Q4’21 earnings call.

On iOS 14, you know, we saw the revenue impact with iOS 14 — sorry, iOS just in general, in Q4, and that was in line with our expectations and similar to the Q3 headwind.

But, obviously, as we go into 2022, we’re going to be lapping a period in which in Q1 and Q2, those headwinds were not in place in the year-ago period. So that definitely makes for a tough comp in the first half of the year. And, you know, we believe the impact of iOS overall as a headwind on our business in 2022 is on the order of $10 billion, so it’s a pretty significant headwind for our business. And, you know, we’re seeing that impact, you know, in a number of verticals.

So, a $10 billion headwind for 2022 is quite something, representing ~8.6% of 2021 revenue for Meta. Combine this with the fact that inflationary pressures and rising interest rates are giving a grim outlook for the economy (and advertising is likely to be heavily impacted), 2022 is shaping up to be a painful year for Meta.

The Ugly

I’m sure one of the main reasons for the name change from Facebook to Meta was to try and shift away from the negative PR surrounding Facebook – well, that hasn’t quite happened.

In fact, just yesterday headlines were plastered across the internet: ‘Meta settles lawsuit with Justice Department over ad-service algorithms’ – so, what happened this time? According to TechCrunch:

The lawsuit was the Justice Department’s first challenging algorithmic bias under the FHA, and it claimed that the algorithms Meta uses to determine which Facebook users receive housing ads relied in part on characteristics like race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status and national origin — all of which are protected under the FHA. Outside investigations have provided evidence in support of the Justice Department’s claims, including a 2020 paper from Carnegie Mellon that showed that biases in Facebook’s ad tools exacerbated socioeconomic inequalities.

Meta said that, under the settlement with the Justice Department, it will stop using an advertising tool for housing ads, Special Ad Audience, which allegedly relied on a discriminatory algorithm to find users who “look like” other users based on FHA-protected characteristics. Meta also will develop a new system over the next six months to “address racial and other disparities caused by its use of personalization algorithms in its ad delivery system for housing ads,” according to a press release, and implement the system by December 31, 2022.

An independent, third-party reviewer will investigate and verify on an ongoing basis whether Meta’s new system meets the standards agreed to by the company and the Justice Department. If the Justice Department concludes that the new system doesn’t sufficiently address the discrimination, the settlement will be terminated.

The good news for Meta shareholders is that the settlement amount is likely to be around $115,000, which for a company of Meta’s size is just loose change it can find down the back of the sofa. It certainly doesn’t compare to the $5 billion penalty dished out to Facebook in 2019 by the Federal Trade Commission for ‘deceiving users about their ability to control the privacy of their personal information’, which was almost 20 times greater than the largest privacy or data security penalty ever imposed worldwide.

Highest Penalties in Privacy Enforcement Actions - $148 million States vs. Uber, $230 million British Authority vs. British Airways (proposed), $275 million CFPB and States vs. Equifax, $5 billion FTC vs. Facebook. Source: Federal Trade Commission.

Federal Trade Commission

Let’s also not forget about more recent negative PR, such as whistle-blower Frances Haugen’s revelations that Facebook’s algorithms promote content that gets the most engagement and reaction. Whilst this may not sound terrible (and even sounds like good business), the main issue is that this ‘engaging’ content is often controversial, untrue, and dangerous. This was highlighted yet again in a Netflix documentary that took the world by storm – The Social Dilemma.

Whatever your views on whether Meta is acting appropriately, any potential investor has to view the continuous negative PR, lawsuits & hearings as a concern. Facebook has put itself in the firing line of lawmakers and regulators time and time again; the company has coped so far, but that’s not to say it won’t struggle in the future.

In a world that is scrutinizing big tech more and more, Facebook has successfully made itself public enemy number 1 for regulators.


Meta’s shares have come crashing down in 2022, and given the financial strength of this business, how appealing does it look from a valuation point of view?

Well, a couple of things to consider:

  1. I will only be including revenue and EBIT from the Family of Apps; I still see the Reality Labs investment as a speculative cash burner, which may or may not work out.
  2. Revenue will clearly struggle in 2022 due to macroeconomic conditions combined with the IOS privacy changes; this will be reflected in my forecast

With that said, here is my valuation model for Meta.

My valuation model for meta platform shares

Meta SEC Filings / Excel

I have allowed for a 10% fall in revenue driven by poor macroeconomic conditions and Apple’s privacy changes. Following this fall, I have allowed for a gradual recovery that is slower than Facebook’s previous growth rates, again due to what I perceive to be increased risk across the board with IOS and regulators, as well as Meta’s size leaving less room for growth.

EBIT margins have remained fairly high, since Meta’s advertising business is mature and optimized for profitability – I don’t see these margins falling drastically anytime soon. I’ve also allowed for a substantial capex investment over this period, but even so Meta is likely to be raking in the cash.

I’ve not allowed for any share buybacks; this wouldn’t have much of an impact in my model, as the cash in reflected in Meta’s enterprise value.

Finally, I think that an EV/EBIT multiple of 16 is appropriate for a company such as Meta (despite the fact that their current EV/EBIT excluding reality labs is a meager 6!), but if this is a bit much you can see the share price growth at a 12x EV/EBIT multiple. For anyone curious, the forecasted share price at a 6x multiple is $224, representing a 9% CAGR.

All in all, this valuation model projects that Meta shares are capable of achieving a 26% CAGR through to 2026.

Bottom Line

Despite the attractive looking valuation, there are just far too many uncertainties surrounding Meta to convince me to invest in the company right now. There’s no telling how hard the company will be hit by a shifting macroeconomic environment, there’s no telling how hard the company will be hit by IOS changes in the long run, and there’s no telling if the negative press will eventually become too much to handle.

Plus, all this valuation is excluding Reality Labs. If you believe in Meta’s ability to truly create the metaverse, then shares today are currently looking like a no brainer. But, if you believe the metaverse talk to be the equivalent of a magician asking the audience to focus on the card he’s holding up, in the hopes that they don’t see his assistant quietly breaching privacy regulations, then perhaps Meta isn’t the company for you.

I may get splinters from sitting on the fence, but Meta is too difficult an investment for me to call. The financials say ‘duh, invest’, but the wider environment says ‘run and don’t look back’ – I’ll continue to keep my eyes on Meta from afar… or at least, through my Instagram account.

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Major Fortnite Professional Gaming Influencer “Fresh” Invests and Backs gDEX Metaverse



Harley Fresh is an Australian Twitch streamer, and YouTube celebrity known for his Fortnite content and goes by the online name Fresh (formerly ‘mrfreshasian’). Harley rose to prominence on social media in late 2018 after excelling in a competitive Fortnite environment and using this skill set for high level gaming content. Fresh currently brings 18 million followers and subscribers across his socials and his YouTube channels have accumulated over 2.5 billion lifetime views since then.

As an Investor and Advisor to the gDEX, Fresh brings his vast gaming, content and web3 experience, understanding of the community, the opportunities to pursue, and the influence that gDEX can have on mainstream gaming moving into Web3, and in charting the future roadmap for the platform along with other visionaries.

“Fresh amazed us with his attitude and sheer presence across the gaming community. I am looking forward to working closely with all our advisors in solving real-life gamers, creator and guild issues in the metaverse. This is a privilege to build something with the community, and for the community,” said J.D. Salbego, Founder and CEO, gDEX Metaverse.

The gDEX platform is bringing together three key industries: metaverse, gaming, and DeFi, each of which come with their own promising market and exponential growth potential. Put simply, gDEX is committed to helping non-crypto gamers and developers overcome the hurdles to enter web3 and make the most of it.

“I look forward to working with gDEX to build something truly valuable for the entire gaming world. These are unique opportunities for us to support teams that are working towards bridging the gap in this industry,” said Harley Fresh.

The gDEX Metaverse serves as a unified GameFi layer that enables interoperability across the metaverse. The platform hosts a suite of robust chain-agnostic no-coding-required tools along with a DeFi-fuelled GameFi token economy for gamers to realise the maximum value of their efforts, creators to easily create and onboard games, and guilds to manage and grow their guilds like never before. Interestingly, all these features and participants are tied together using a unique metaverse passport system. This is another step towards enabling gamers to monetize their gaming identity, assets, efforts and skill level across games, platforms and the metaverse as a whole.

About the Star Gamer FRESH:

Harley has quickly risen to become one of Twitch’s most popular streams in no time. He was a professional gamer for some time before pursuing his career as a content creator. Since then, Harley has played Fornite with a slew of other well-known gamers, like LazarBeam and Lachlan.

He’s a regular competitor in Fortnite tournaments, such as the 2019 Fortnite World Cup Celebrity Pro-Am, where he competed alongside fellow Australian celebrity Desmond Chaim.  Harley has also won the Australian Open ProAM in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Learn more about Fresh and follow him on his social media pages:




About The gDEX Metaverse:

The ground-breaking gDEX is the meeting point of three important segments: metaverses, gaming, and DeFi, each with its own promising market and exponential opportunity.

The gDEX (Decentralized Finance Gaming Platform Exchange) is a revolutionary Play to Earn platform powering gamers, creators, and guilds in the Metaverse. gDEX Metaverse acts as a unified GameFi layer enabling interoperability across the metaverse which hosts a suite of robust chain agnostic no-coding needed tools and DeFi fueled GameFi token economy for gamers to maximise the value of their effort, for creators to create and onboard games easily, and for guilds to manage and grow their guilds like never before — all attached to their unique metaverse passport.

Learn more about gDEX Metaverse here:


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Recently ‘Metawhale World’ has announced launch of World’s First NFT Museum in Metaverse



Blockchain technology has significantly transformed the realm of business in a plethora of ways and for sure, has opened up numerous opportunities for savvy entrepreneurs, market enthusiasts and budding investors. It has given people a completely new platform for creative, innovative and unique methods of wealth creation. Things like NFTs, Cryptocurrency, and the Metaverse have created quite a stride in recent times and are drawing the attention of people across the globe and India is no exception. Keeping this in mind, Rahul Kaushik, a well-known Delhi-NCR based entrepreneur, has recently launched ‘Metawhale World’, a blockchain-based platform that allows its users to build and monetize their gaming experience. The launch of the platform took place on April 28, 2022 at the posh 5-star hotel, Sahara Star, situated in India’s financial capital.  

Since its launch, Metawhale World has been the talk of the town for all the positive reasons and one of the major aspects for the same is because the innovative blockchain-based platform allows the rightful ownership of the creation to all its existing gamers alongside rewarding every participant with their exclusive utility token-MTW. Moreover, for ensuring complete data protection and providing security, they have developed a decentralised control system that restricts creator ownership in the current gaming market. The virtual platform also allows its community members to have complete access and control over their work, ranging from 3D arts to gaming assets. Unlike the other existing platforms in the market that are complex and hard to navigate for the people, Metawhale World is developed in a way that is easy to use and has a wide adoption that validates the network. The platform also allows all kinds of brands to promote their services and products. These things have significantly made it one of the most promising and reliable blockchain-based platforms in India. 

With the vision to help Indians understand and get connected to the fascinating world of Blockchain, Rahul Kaushik, an astute and a visionary entrepreneur, launched Metawhale World with his Co-Founder, Rahul Pabby. Rahul has always been someone who understands the market like a maven and is someone who believes in beginning innovation to the table. Through Metawhale World, he has successfully proved his mettle but he is someone who believes in the phrase that “The day you think I have achieved it, it’s over” and keeping this in his belief, he has taken his next big move that is all set to disrupt the realm of NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens). 

Taking things to the next level, Rahul Kaushik has recently announced two big moves during a mega event held at the Hotel Glitz Westend Inn, situated in the National Capital on June 26th, 2022. He along with Rahul Pabby (Co-Founder), Gunjan Shekawat (Director), Vishal Raj (Chief Communication Officer), Manish Arora (Chief Marketing Officer) and Ullas Sirdesai (Chief Finance Strategist) has officially announced the launch of the world’s first NFT Museum. During the event, more than 350 entrepreneurs and other big names like Prahladbhai Modi, Deepak Londe, Prashant Mandekar and Rajuseth Oswal were present who appreciated the new initiative taken by Meta Whale World. The first-of-its-kind which will display digital artworks for anyone who is having a strong internet connection. The soon-to-be-launched museum will also be able to extend access without diluting the monetary value of the plethora of listed digital artworks. Apart from this, designers and curators will also be able to make the exhibitions as imaginative and as immersive as they would like while spending less time and capital. 

The second major announcement made at the event was that IgniteChain would be teaming and partnering up with Metawhale World to release a variety of digital collectibles on the blockchain network. These two brands coming together is likely to generate huge buzz in the world of NFTs. Representing IgniteChain, JM Narola (CEO), Umesh Mistry (COO), Vimal Panchal (CMO), Hardik Vaghela (CTO), Hemant Jass (Head of Advisory) and Piyush Jain (Advisory Member) were also present at the event. This partnership between both the renowned platforms is aimed at bringing a 360-degree transformation in the realm of NFTs and through this move, IgniteChain has opened doors for many developers, projects and applications to build decentralised solutions for the web3 community. IgniteChain which will be partnering with Metawhale World is a decentralised blockchain network working on PoS consensus combined with reward based validation protocol PoR (Proof-of-Reward). They make it easier to utilise blockchain networks across different sectors including enterprises, governmental and decentralised finance. 

Metawhale World, a blockchain based platform that was launched recently, under the leadership of Rahul Kaushik, allows users to build and monetize their gaming experience. The Binance Blockchain powered the platform and uses MTW’s utility token. Meta Whale World will allow actual ownership of the creation to all its existing gamers, and they even promise to reward every participant with their exclusive utility token-MTW. Further, for data protection and ensuring security, they have developed a decentralized control system that will restrict creator ownership in the current gaming market.  

Now, with these two moves, Metawhale World, is all set to take the world of NFTs and Metaverse to the next level and Rahul Kaushik is leaving no stones unturned to achieve this. 

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iClick Interactive Releases Metaverse Livestreaming Mobile App Arohar



Brings livestreaming to the metaverse for the first time

HONG KONG, June 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (“iClick” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: ICLK), a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China that empowers worldwide brands with full-stack consumer lifecycle solutions, today announced the launch of Arohar, its proprietary live streaming enhancement mobile application that integrates AI, AR and interactive 3D avatars to bring a brand new metaverse-based live streaming experience to users. iClick’s flagship product, Arohar, for KOL promotion in overseas markets represents a new SaaS paradigm for live streaming.

(PRNewsfoto/iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited)

(PRNewsfoto/iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited)

According to the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (“PwC”), the metaverse-related market is estimated to reach USD467.4 billion by 2025. Featuring immersive virtual backgrounds and effects, and the ability to create real-time facial animation avatars through AR technology, Arohar’s all-in-one livestreaming solution marks iClick’s first step into the metaverse market. Arohar currently enables users to access Meta and other overseas metaverse platforms, and future upgrades will help accelerate the development of the metaverse ecosystem and promote the transformation of the live streaming industry.

Arohar brings exciting new features to livestreaming including 3D avatars with AR facial micro-expression tracking and real-time facial animation and immersive virtual backgrounds through the AI image processing technology. Arohar is able to instantly detect the physical features of the live streamer and generate a clear virtual likeness and background without a green screen. Through these innovations, Arohar delivers a cutting-edge metaverse livestreaming experience that allows users to enjoy eight key features:

  • Access to high quality virtual backgrounds;

  • Create real-time animated 3D avatars;

  • Enhance facial features with beauty and makeup filters;

  • Use multi-scene switching to ensure smooth and attractive live streaming;

  • Remote control of live streaming via App or Bluetooth;

  • Share mobile game streams with friends and fans seamlessly via screen sharing;

  • Enhance live streams through built-in massive live streaming resources;

  • Support live streaming to multiple social media platforms such as Facebook Live, YouTube, Twitch, Twitter, Instagram and more.

Frankie Ho, iClick’s President of International Business said, “We are very excited to announce the overseas launch of Arohar, a breakthrough solution that empowers metaverse livestreaming under our ‘SaaS+X’ business model. Arohar will be a key driver in our overseas market strategy as we focus on innovation to drive robust growth. iClick will continue to seek business opportunities in the metaverse while further accelerating the development of our SaaS product matrix to address brands’ challenges in the face of rapidly evolving business models and market.”

Arohar is now available on Google Play Store and Apple App Store in North America. For more information, please visit

About iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited

Founded in 2009, iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (NASDAQ: ICLK) is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. iClick’s mission is to empower worldwide brands to unlock the enormous market potential of smart retail. With its leading proprietary technologies, iClick’s full suite of data-driven solutions helps brands drive significant business growth and profitability throughout the full consumer lifecycle. Headquartered in Hong Kong, iClick currently operates in eleven locations across Asia and Europe. For more information, please visit

Safe Harbor Statement

This announcement contains forward-looking statements, including those related to the Company’s business strategies, operations and financial performance. These statements constitute “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. Such statements are based upon management’s current expectations and current market and operating conditions and relate to events that involve known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the Company’s control. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s fluctuations in growth; its success in implementing its mobile and new retail strategies, including extending its solutions beyond its core online marketing business; its success in structuring a CRM & Marketing Cloud platform; relative percentage of its gross billing recognized as revenue under the gross and net models; its ability to retain existing clients or attract new ones; its ability to retain content distribution channels and negotiate favourable contractual terms; market competition, including from independent online marketing technology platforms as well as large and well-established internet companies; market acceptance of online marketing technology solutions and enterprise solutions; litigation and negative publicity surroundings China -based companies listed in the U.S.; effectiveness of its algorithms and data engines; its ability to collect and use data from various sources; its ability to comply with existing or future laws and regulations related to data protection or data security; ability to integrate and realize synergies from acquisitions, investments or strategic partnership; the duration of the COVID-19 outbreak, including the emergence of COVID variants, and its potential impact on the Company’s business and financial performance; fluctuations in foreign exchange rates; general economic conditions in China and other jurisdictions where the Company operates; and the regulatory landscape in China and other jurisdictions where the Company operates. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s annual report on Form 20-F and other filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.

For investor and media inquiries, please contact:

iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited

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Philip Lisio



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