Is technical analysis real? : The Indicator from Planet Money : NPR

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A woman is sillouetted against a screen showing the falling Hang Seng index at a trading house in Hong Kong on October 22, 2008. Hong Kong share prices closed 5.2 percent down, dragged by Citic Pacific after its earlier warning that it was facing a potentially huge foreign exchange loss, dealers said. AFP PHOTO/PHILIPPE LOPEZ

Philippe Gomez/AFP via Getty Images

A woman is sillouetted against a screen showing the falling Hang Seng index at a trading house in Hong Kong on October 22, 2008. Hong Kong share prices closed 5.2 percent down, dragged by Citic Pacific after its earlier warning that it was facing a potentially huge foreign exchange loss, dealers said. AFP PHOTO/PHILIPPE LOPEZ

Philippe Gomez/AFP via Getty Images

The “head and shoulders.” The “Ichimoku cloud.” The “death cross.” Technical analysts see these patterns in stock price charts and use them to decide future trades. Economic literature has long held that technical analysis is a poor predictor of a stock or a bond’s performance, but plenty of traders and popular media outlets still use it daily.

Today, we talk to one trader who has built a career on analyzing stock charts, as well as a skeptic whose fake chart pattern, the “vomiting camel,” has taken on a life of its own.

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