ᴍʏ ᴇᴛᴏʀᴏ ᴘʀᴏғɪʟᴇ & sᴛᴀᴛs: https://wesl3y.com
💬 ᴄᴏᴘɪᴇʀ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ ᴛᴜᴇs 14 sᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2021
Happy Tuesday copiers! I was travelling yesterday so couldn’t do my weekly update.
Looking back over the past 12 months:
S&P500 12-month: +32%
wesl3y 12-month: +43%
👀 ᴡᴇᴇᴋ ɪɴ ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡ
👑 ᴛʜᴇ ᴜɴɪᴛᴇᴅ ᴋɪɴɢᴅᴏᴍ
UK economic growth has been weak in recent months for several reasons: the “pingdemic” caused by the NHS COVID app, an enormous shortage of truck drivers (we’re short up to 100k drivers and it takes months to train each driver), trade issues created by Brexit, and supply chain issues that everywhere is experiencing.
A slowdown in GDP growth, higher inflation, a hit in corporate earnings, and $UK100 back down to levels first seen in 2000! UK stocks dipped on slow down and inflation fears and given that 10% of my portfolio is in UK stocks this created some drag. $ASOS.L and $EZJ.L were outliers in the portfolio. I cannot find a definitive reason for the drop in ASOS although many are saying it’s because of supply chain issues. EasyJet rejected a take over bid, and has diluted shareholders and raised £1.2bn by issuing more shares. I believe both are roughly half where they will be in the next 12-24 months.
🦅 ᴛʜᴇ ᴜɴɪᴛᴇᴅ sᴛᴀᴛᴇs
$SPX500 and $NSDQ100 took a bit of a breather last week as multiple banks and other analysts starting posting articles about an expected 5-10% correction. I find it hilarious that the wording from lots of them was so similar, and landed at the same time. They’re not necessarily wrong, but they are copycats. A correction would be healthy, and I think we’ll see some volatility as the market sets up for Q4 which usually sees a rally on the back of all the consumer spending in this period.
So far we’ve seen a gentle pullback in US indices and the mega-caps continue to drive them. Smaller companies such as those in the Russell 5000 are not nearly as overpriced as many larger companies. This smaller index has traded in a range for many months now
The regulatory onslaught continues in the gaming sector, $BABA (indirectly via splitting Ant Financial), and companies donating profits to social causes. Sentiment is awful right now, yet despite the ongoing bad news, some Chinese stocks aren’t moving much lower. This might be a sign that all the people that would sell in this environment have now done so creating a bottom. However, I will continue to wait for a catalyst and turning sentiment
I know it’s been frustrating for some copiers in recent months with the portfolio being flat. My 6-month realised profit is actually over 6% as part of the portfolio has done well. Unfortunately, macro issues and coronavirus have delayed the return from some parts of the portfolio but this will change. I spoke about some of this in a video I created: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xa7U1Lt7aI0
🔮 ᴛʜɪs ᴡᴇᴇᴋ
We’ve already had some economic data out of the US and UK this week, but there’s quite a lot more to come. Chinese industrial production tomorrow. US retail sales, jobless claims etc. As we’ve seen the market is super sensitive to this data right now. Although it’s interesting I consider it background noise most of the time.
Coronavirus numbers in the UK, Europe, and US seem to be rolling over but now the market is concerned with what might happen as Autumn and Winter approach. I expect this to dominate headlines for the next few weeks and months
Have a great week! 🖖
Disclaimer: This is my analysis and opinion, not investment advice. I might own some of the stocks and other assets mentioned, please check my etoro portfolio to find out.