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Ethereum risks ‘bull trap’ after 25% ETH price rebound

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Ethereum’s token Ether (ETH) could be entering a “bull trap” zone after rebounding back above the $1,000 mark from 18-month lows of $885. 

Ether price paints a “rising wedge”

The first among these indicators is a “rising wedge,” a classic bearish reversal setup that forms after the price trends upward inside a range defined by two ascending but converging trendlines. The wedge setup gains further confirmation if the trading volume drops alongside the rising prices.

Theoretically, a rising wedge resolves after the price breaks below its lower trendline and eyes a run-down toward the level at length equal to the maximum height between the wedge’s upper and lower trendline

Ether has been forming a rising wedge since mid-June, as shown in the chart below.

ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring ‘rising wedge’ setup. Source: TradingView

Hence, its interim bias appears to the downside, with a decisive breakdown below the lower trendline risking a decline toward the $870–$950, depending on where the breakdown begins. 

That means a 15%–25% decline from June 13’s ETH price.

$70M exits Ethereum funds

Ethereum’s bearish case is supported by evidence of significant outflows from investment funds.

Notably, Ether-related investment products witnessed outflows worth $70 million in the week ending June 17, according to data fetched by CoinShares.

Notably, this was the eleventh-straight week of capital withdrawals, bringing the year-to-date outflow total to $458.6 million.

Flow of Asset. Source: CoinShares

In contrast, Solana (SOL), one of Ethereum’s top rivals in the smart contracts ecosystem, attracted $109 million in 2022 for its related funds. While Bitcoin (BTC) saw $480 million flow into its investment products.

Related: DeFi Summer 3.0? Uniswap overtakes Ethereum on fees, DeFi outperforms

CoinShares cited investors’ worries over Ethereum’s “Merge” to proof-of-stake as the primary reason behind its funds’ poor performance this year.

Ethereum options strike price: $1K

ETH options’ open interest on Deribit shows over $1 billion in notional for Ether, awaiting the expiry on June 24. Interestingly, these Ether options are major puts around the current price levels, with a concentration around the $1,000 strike, according to data from Coinglass.

Ether options open interest by strike price. Source: Coinglass

The June 24 expiration could potentially influence Ether’s price action, primarily because it trades only 10% above the preferred strike price of $1,000. Additionally, a move toward $1,000 could trigger the rising wedge setup. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.



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Ethereum

Devcon VI: First Tickets & FINAL WEEK of Speaker Applications

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Three weeks ago, we opened the speaker and volunteer applications as well as the discount builder and student tickets, and we are excited about the quality of submissions!

This year, we’ve opened applications for those looking to attend Devcon with Builder and Student discounts, as Speakers, Supporters, Volunteers or as Press. But what about improvements for General Attendance passes? Today we want to announce the Auction & Raffle – A new method for ticket distribution and a way for you to save a Devcon ticket ahead of the regular ticket sale.

Apply NOW to Speak at Devcon!

Today we are extending the deadline for speaker applications by one week. If you have not had a chance to submit an application to speak and would like to, head to the application form here. The new deadline to submit is July 5, 23:59:59 UTC.

Applicants will hear back on the status of their application before the end of July. You can find more info on the review process and criteria here.

The First Tickets to Devcon VI: Meet the Devcon Auction & Raffle

Ticket distribution is always a challenge when demand exceeds supply, and we’ve spent time thinking about new ways to give more opportunities to those looking to attend Devcon VI.

This year, we will be holding a pre-sale Auction & Raffle for the first Devcon VI tickets, with the help of the amazing TrueFi dev team.

In past years, Devcon ticket waves, scheduled over different days and times, were aimed at targeting a more diverse population than one simple sale. Still, there are advantages for those who are in the right timezones, or even geographically located closer to our physical ticketing servers. In general, our goal is to distribute tickets in as many ways as we can, and without asking most attendees to wait and refresh a website at a certain time (whenever possible).

How will the Auction work?

Both the Auction & Raffle will take place on Arbitrum, a layer 2 rollup that settles on Ethereum’s mainnet. We advise bridging funds to Arbitrum ahead of time if you wish to participate, and ETH will be the only accepted form of payment.

The Ticket Auction will look similar to a traditional auction: Participants can submit bids and the 20 highest bidders will each receive a ticket to Devcon VI, in exchange for their bid amount. The minimum bid required to participate in the Auction will be 0.25 ETH (a significant discount below the price of a General Admission ticket).

And best of all, proceeds will be donated to public goods! Oh, and everybody who participates in the Auction & Raffle will get a POAP NFT to indicate participation.

Details on where and how to bid will follow soon! Keep an eye out on Twitter and at Devcon.org for more information.

Note: Smart contract wallets like Argent & Gnosis safe will not be compatible with the Auction & Raffle this year. We plan to amend the contracts in future iterations to allow us to accept smart contract wallets.

How will the Raffle work?

Any participants who do not make the top 20 bids will have another chance to win 1 of 80 tickets to Devcon VI at the reserve price (0.25 ETH) through a raffle!

Each person who wins the Raffle will be able to withdraw any extra ETH above the reserve price. If you do not win either the raffle or the auction, you can withdraw your entire bid amount, minus a 2% sybil resistance fee.

Main Details

  • Bidding begins at 08:00 UTC on July 5, 2022,
  • Bidding will close at 07:59 UTC on July 14, 2022.
  • The minimum bid required to participate in the Auction will be 0.25 ETH (a significant discount below the price of a General Admission ticket).
  • The 20 highest bidders will each receive a ticket to Devcon VI in exchange for their bid amount.
  • All other bidders will be entered in the raffle to win 1 of 80 tickets to Devcon VI at the reserve price.
  • All funds/proceeds will be donated to public goods.

Claim Deadline

Winners of the Auction & Raffle will have 48 HOURS TO CLAIM THEIR TICKET. Once this 48 hours has passed, you will no longer be able to redeem your voucher nor withdraw your funds. Set your reminders! ⏲️

Want more information? A very detailed FAQ & Specs section will be featured on the Devcon site in the coming days. Keep posted to Twitter and to Devcon.org for more information.

Ready? Set…

Let’s Recap!

  • The deadline for speaker applications has been extended by one week! This is it: submit those applications to speak today!.
  • The new deadline to submit speaker applications is July 5, 23:59:59 UTC.
  • An on-chain Devcon Auction & Raffle begins on July 5th, 2022! See details above, and stay tuned to Twitter and to Devcon.org for details.
  • If you don’t win a ticket, don’t fret: public ticket sales will launch after the Auction & Raffle pre-sale concludes.

– 🦄



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Ethereum

Harmony hacker sends stolen funds to Tornado Cash mixer

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The funds from Harmony’s Horizon Bridge have begun to move into the Tornado Cash Ethererum mixer, signaling that the attacker has no intention of accepting the $1 million bounty offered.

The decision to obfuscate the ill-gotten gains answers questions about whether the Harmony team’s offer of just 1% of the $100 million in crypto funds stolen on Friday would be enough to convince the exploiter to return them.

A total of 18,036.3 Ether (ETH), worth about $21 million, was moved out of the Horizon Bridge exploiter’s primary wallet at 03:10 am EST on Tuesday. These funds were then divided equally three ways and sent to three different addresses in single transactions, respectively, over the next 10 hours.

Tornado Cash supports mixing a maximum of 100 ETH at a time, which means large sums can easily take several hours to mix. Mixing ETH is a privacy measure designed to obfuscate the transaction path of coins so they cannot be traced back to previous transactions.

The first and second wallets that received ETH from the exploiter’s primary wallet have completed mixing the coins and are now left with about 16.3 ETH collectively, an amount likely too small to bother with.

The third wallet was busy sending batches of 100 ETH to Tornado in eight-minute intervals and still had 2,800 coins remaining as of the time of writing.

Cointelegraph has not received a reply from the Harmony team on what it plans to do to replace the stolen funds in the bridge.

The project’s Twitter account reaffirmed on Monday that the team was working with “two highly reputable blockchain tracing and analysis partners,” along with the United State Federal Bureau of Investigation, to investigate the hack.

About $80 million in ETH is still in the explorer’s primary wallet. They could possibly return a portion of the stolen funds to Horizon, or they may be taking a break as it has taken the exploiter over 13 hours to mix just $21 million.

Although the initial haul was valued at about $100 million at the time, positive ETH price fluctuations have increased the dollar value to $101.5 million.

Stephen Tse, founder of Harmony, confirmed on Saturday that the exploiter took control of the required two Horizon Bridge signees for the multisignature address used to secure funds. He noted that the Ethereum side of the bridge affected by the exploit was moved to a more secure multisig wallet that required four signees.

Related: Axie Infinity to compensate Ronin exploit victims and relaunch bridge

Horizon is the latest in a growing list of token bridges that have been attacked. The largest token bridge to be hacked was Poly Network in 2021, which lost $610 million that was almost entirely returned.

In total, over $1 billion has been extracted from the Meter, Wormhole, Ronin and now Horizon token bridges through nefarious means in 2022 so far.



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BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, AVAX

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market is one of the worst, according to a report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This was the first time in history that the Mayer Multiple slipped below the previous cycle’s low. Bitcoin’s fall below $20,000 on June 18 also marked the biggest loss ever booked by investors in a single day at $4.23 billion. Considering the above factors and a few other events, Glassnode believes that the capitulation in Bitcoin may have started.

Bitcoin whales seem to have started their purchasing, suggesting that the bottom may be close and on June 25, analytics resource “Game of Trades” highlighted that demand from whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin witnessed a sharp spike in demand.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Another sign that traders are purchasing comes from Glassnode comments suggesting that the 30-day average change in the supply kept on exchanges plummeted by 153,849 Bitcoin on June 26, the largest ever in history.

Could bulls continue their purchases on dips and form a higher low? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will try to pull the price to the psychological level of $20,000.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off $20,000, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could keep the pair range-bound between $20,000 and $22,000 for a few days.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,890). That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $24,693.

This level could again act as a resistance, but if bulls overcome the barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($27,150). The bulls will have to push the price above this level to indicate that the pair may have bottomed out.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,300) on June 26 but the bulls could not push the price above the resistance. This suggests that the bears are not willing to surrender their advantage easily.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair to $1,050. This is an important level to watch out for because a break below it could suggest that bears are in control.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or rises from $1,050, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to the breakdown level of $1,700. A break and close above this resistance could indicate the start of a new uptrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($241) since June 24. This suggests that the bears are defending the level but the bulls have not yet given up as they anticipate a move higher.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($277). This level may again act as a stiff hurdle but if crossed, the pair could attempt a rally toward $350.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the pair could drop to $211. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a rebound off it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. But if the level cracks, the pair could retest the vital support at $183.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $0.35 on June 24 but the bulls could not clear the barrier at the 50-day SMA ($0.38). This suggests that the bears are defending the level aggressively.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip back below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). This suggests buying on dips. If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA.

If they can pull it off, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to $0.45.

Another possibility is that bears pull the price back below $0.35. If that happens, the pair could slide to $0.32 and then to $0.28.

ADA/USDT

The buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on June 26 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears aggressively sold at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up ground and are again attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at the moving averages. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rise toward $0.70 where the bears may again put up a strong defense.

If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $0.40 and $0.70 for some more time.

This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.44. That could pull the pair to $0.40.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the moving averages since June 24. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to the 50-day SMA ($43) and bulls are buying on dips to the 20-day EMA ($38).

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages are close to a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that bulls are attempting a comeback. If buyers propel the price above the 50-day SMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $60.

This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the momentum could pick up. On the contrary, if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair could then slide to $33.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 25. The buyers extended the recovery on June 26 and pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.08) but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that bears are defending the level with vigor.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $0.09 and then to the psychological level at $0.10. This level could again act as a resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the momentum is likely to pick up.

Alternately, if the price fails to sustain above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will then try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA.

Related: Dogecoin price could rally 20% in July with this bullish reversal pattern

DOT/USDT

The bears have been aggressively defending the 20-day EMA ($8.11) in Polkadot (DOT) since June 24 but a positive sign is that bulls have not given up much ground. A tight consolidation near a resistance usually resolves to the upside.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($9.13). This level may again act as a hurdle but the likelihood of a break above it is high. If that happens, the pair could rally to $10.75.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will then try to pull the pair below $7.30 and challenge the crucial support at $6.36.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 25 but the bulls could not continue the recovery. The bears sold near $0.000012 on June 26 and are trying to pull the price back below the 50-day SMA.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) has started to turn up gradually and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge. If the price rebounds off the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to resume the up-move.

If the price rises above $0.000012, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA ($20) and the overhead resistance at $21.35 since June 25. This suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If bulls push the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($25). This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the pair may rise to $30.

This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA and plummets below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a possible decline to $16.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.



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