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Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are stuck in a tight range with bulls buying near the support and bears selling at resistance levels. Usually, such tight ranges are followed by an expansion in volatility.
Although a few analysts have not ruled out a quick drop to low $40,000s, most traders expect Bitcoin to rebound sharply and move up to $60,000.
Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors that if Bitcoin continues to increase its market share over gold as a store of value and crosses the 50% mark, then it could rally to $100,000 over the next five years.
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode said in its report on Jan. 3 that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has increased to more than 76% of the total circulating supply. According to Glassnode researchers, the drop in liquid supply suggests that price capitulation looks unlikely in the near future.
Could Bitcoin surprise with a sharp move down and pull the major altcoins lower? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin’s price is sandwiched between the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($48,033) and the critical support at $45,456. Although both moving averages are sloping down, the relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to form a positive divergence. This indicates that the selling pressure could be reducing.
If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $51,936.33. This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance. If the price turns down from it, the pair could remain range-bound between $51,936.33 and $45,456 for a few more days.
A break and close above $51,936.33 will suggest the start of an up-move that could reach $60,000. On the contrary, if the price turns down and plummets below $45,456, the selling could intensify and the pair could then drop to the $42,000 to $40,000 support zone.
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($3,881) but the positive sign is that bulls are not giving up much ground. This indicates buying on dips. The bulls will now attempt to push the price back above the 20-day EMA.
If they do that, it will indicate that the correction could be ending. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($4,086), which could again act as a resistance. A break and close above this level will suggest the start of an up-move to $4,488 and then to the all-time high at $4,888.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, a drop to the $3,643.73 to $3,503.68 support zone is possible. This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could open the doors for a possible decline to $3,270 and then to $2,800.
Binance Coin (BNB) has turned down from the 20-day EMA ($530) and is currently taking support at the psychological level at $500.
If bears sink and sustain the price below the $500 to $489.20 support zone, the selling momentum could pick up and the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $435.30. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to bears.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that bulls continue to defend this support. They will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, that pair could rise to $575.
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($178) on Jan. 2, indicating that bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will now try to pull the price below the strong support at $167.88.
If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $148.04, which could act as a strong support. If the bounce off this level fails to rise above $167.99, it will indicate that demand dries up at higher levels.
That could intensify the selling and the pair could drop to the critical support at $120. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages to signal that the selling pressure could be reducing. The pair could then rally to $204.75.
Cardano (ADA) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($1.36) on the upside and $1.28 on the downside. This is a minor positive as it suggests that bulls are not willing to cede ground to the bears.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just below 46, suggesting that the selling pressure could be reducing. If bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $1.60 and then to the resistance line of the channel.
A break and close above the channel will signal that the downtrend could be over. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below $1.18. That could pull the price to the crucial support at $1.
Ripple (XRP) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.86) on Jan. 3 suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on relief rallies.
The long tail on the Jan. 4 candlestick shows strong buying in the $0.77 to $0.75 support zone. The XRP/USDT pair could now consolidate between $0.75 and the 20-day EMA for the next few days.
A break and close above the moving averages could clear the path for a rally to $1. If bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could start its journey toward the stiff overhead resistance at $1.41. Alternatively, if the price breaks and closes below $0.75, the pair could drop to $0.60 and then to $0.50.
Terra’s LUNA token turned down from the overhead resistance at $93.81 on Jan. 3 and has reached the 20-day EMA ($83). This suggests that bears are selling on rallies.
If bears pull the price below $81.11, the selling could intensify as short-term traders may rush to the exit. The LUNA/USDT pair could first drop to $76.72 and then extend the decline to the 50-day SMA ($67).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price bounces off $81.11, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the overhead barrier at $93.81 and push the pair to the all-time high at $103.60.
Polkadot (DOT) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($28) and the overhead resistance at $31.49 for the past few days. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand.
If the price breaks and closes above the $31.49 to $32.78 resistance zone, it will indicate that the balance has tilted in favor of the bulls. The DOT/USDT pair could then start its northward march toward $40.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could extend its stay inside the range between $31.49 and $22.66 for a few more days. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below $22.66 to signal the resumption of the down move.
Avalanche (AVAX) slipped below the moving averages on Jan. 4, indicating that bears are aggressively defending the downtrend line. The flat 20-day EMA ($107) and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a state of equilibrium between the bulls and the bears.
If the price sustains below the moving averages, the bears will attempt to sink the AVAX/USDT pair below $98. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to the strong support at $75.50.
On the contrary, if bulls drive the price back above the moving average, the pair could rise to the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will signal a possible change in trend. The pair could first rise to $128 and then retest the all-time high at $147.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading in a tight range between the 20-day EMA ($.0.17) and $0.16 for the past few days. This suggests that both the bulls and the bears are not placing large bets and are playing it safe.
Usually, tight ranges are followed by sharp moves. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest the path of least resistance is the downside.
If the price breaks below $0.16, the bears will attempt to pull the DOGE/USDT pair below the strong support at $0.15. If they succeed, it could result in a decline to $0.13 and then to $0.10.
On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $0.19. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to signal a possible change in trend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Bitcoin (BTC) looked to target new August highs at the Aug. 8 Wall Street open as upcoming United States inflation data fueled sentiment.
The pair was within striking distance of its highest since mid-June at the time of writing, while traders and analysts scanned the charts for signs of resistance.
For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, this came in the form of sellers at $25,000 and Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA).
“Bear Market Rally is pumping ahead of this week’s CPI report,” it wrote as part of its latest Twitter update.
An accompanying chart showed long signals still characterizing the daily chart, with the 100-day MA sitting at around $25,650.
Order book data from the largest global exchange Binance reinforced expectations of friction in that area, as sell liquidity was mounting around the $25,000 mark.
Running the show on risk assets was the Aug. 10 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, with markets waiting to see if U.S. inflation had set a peak.
While this would notionally allow crypto some breathing space, commentators pointed out that the risk of a major stock market correction remained, with crypto still heavily correlated.
Moves by Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, exacerbated concerns that risk assets were simply in the midst of an extended bear market relief rally.
After last week’s partnership with U.S. exchange Coinbase, Fink sold a tranche of more than 44,000 BlackRock shares this month, his first major sale since the months before the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Concerns thus focused on whether Fink now knew something that the majority did not.
LARRY FINK CEO OF BLACKROCK WHICH IS THE WORLDS LARGEST ASSET MANAGER WITH OVER 10 TRILLION IN ASSETS SOLD ANOTHER 8% OF HIS OWN STOCK LAST WEEK. THIS IS HIS BIGGEST STOCK SALE AFTER COVID , HIS LAST BIGGEST STOCK SALE WAS RIGHT BEFORE THE COVID CRASH. $BLK pic.twitter.com/5aNwTjLzPM
— Gurgavin (@gurgavin) August 8, 2022
“I think the one thing that can push prices back down is the stock market having another major pullback,” trader and pundit Max Rager continued on the day.
“Outside, hard to see something putting as much selling pressure as we had with both the LUNA/3AC events.”
Rager argued that since the majority were expecting a trip to June’s lows or worse, this would no longer be what causes the market “max pain.”
Out of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, it was not Bitcoin putting in the best daily or even weekly performance.
ETH/USD, amid ongoing speculation over the Merge and its consequences, reached $1,817 on Binance, marking its highest since June 9.
For on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the good times could continue until the event itself, expected to be in September.
“There is little directional bias evident in Bitcoin derivatives markets. On the Ethereum side, however, traders are clearly holding a long bias, expressed heavily in options contracts centred in September,” it wrote about traders’ plans in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on Aug. 8.
“Both futures and options market are in backwardation after September, suggesting traders are expecting the Merge to be a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ style event, and have positioned accordingly.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
We ask the buidlers in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector for their thoughts on the industry… and throw in a few random zingers to keep them on their toes!
This week, our 6 Questions go to Tongtong Bee, co-founder of Panony — an incubator, investor and adviser for blockchain and Web3 business.
I’m Tongtong Bee, the co-founder of Panony and founder and editor-in-chief of PANews. I started my professional journey as a journalist at China’s traditional news outlets, including China News Service, Jiemian and Cailian Media Group. Since 2015, I’ve been covering blockchain and fintech news as one of the few journalists in China to focus on these sectors at the time.
My focus on economic issues and emerging technologies led to me being selected to report on the “Two Sessions” (NPC and CPPCC) in 2018. And that’s the year my business partner Alyssa and I started PANews. We’ve published over 20,000 articles with an average of over 5 million page views per month, became a frequently cited source in crypto and blockchain journalism, including Forbes, Caixin, CCN, and we’re an official news source of Tencent News.
I have to say Bitcoin. Being a journalist keen on economic research, I got blown away when knowing about its concept for the first time.
Bitcoin is designed to be a substantial step forward in making money more secure, as well as a significant deterrent to many types of financial crime. It is the first decentralized peer-to-peer payment network driven by its users with no central authority. Bitcoin now has changed the world and will continue revolutionizing the financial systems in many countries. It remains the creative outcome in all of its present and limitless future uses.
Being part of Panony and PANews, we always feel excited to meet and work with hundreds of brilliant, innovative projects worldwide. For example, I’m personally intrigued with what they’re doing at Cudos, a decentralized cloud computing platform. We know that the cloud is pricey and centralized. In addition, up to 50% of the time, the hardware is inactive or switched off, resulting in low return on investment for enterprises and an enormous carbon footprint. Thus, the current development trajectory is unsustainable for the planet.
The Cudos network, using its cloud-based distributed computing approach that includes blockchain support, allows organizations to save up to 10 times more than centralized hyper-scale cloud platforms and hardware owners to offset (and potentially profit from) the cost of their hardware by renting out their computational power to the network.
The blockchain industry can be exuberant. I’m glad there are plenty of talents out there building a better future together.
Good question. The decentralized web is the unstoppable future of the internet.
In the current version of the web, also known as Web2, people can’t overlook the results of big corporations controlling what happens online: personal data being tracked and sold without our permission, loss of power for our contents, being dominated by ads… Most of the web is centralized. Web3, which seeks to drastically reimagine how we design and interact with apps from the ground up, will fix many of these issues. There are a few fundamental differences between Web2 and Web3, but decentralization is at the heart.
The Ethereum network is currently the largest decentralized network, with access to thousands of decentralized applications. With a focus on digital ownership, the earning potential for content creators and the inventions of new ways to invest has increased. And in a decentralized web, individuals can control their data, not some mega corporate or anybody else.
As a winter game enthusiast myself, my memories of the Beijing 2022 Olympics are still fresh! Eileen Gu winning two gold medals and one silver at a single game is surely a free ski sensation. Not just watching her beautiful moves is jaw-dropping; I also admire her constant efforts to inspire girls. I’m also honored to have made the Forbes China 30 Under 30 in 2020 with her (different list)!
As a female entrepreneur, I admire her spirit of sticking to goals, challenging the status quo, pursuing dreams with passion and constant hard work. It gave me strength when my business partner Alyssa and I started our business together.
I really wish I don’t need to sleep so I can do more things that interest me. I would probably read more books because I always find it fascinating to get to know something new. During the two-month lockdown in Shanghai, I grew out of a habit of indoor badminton exercise and will keep on doing that, doing it properly outdoors.
I’m super grateful that my husband and I share many hobbies, and one of them is to write a book together on advertising in Shanghai. We’re also quite interested in making documentaries for Chinese folk artists and hope the world could see them one day.
We envision the future of social media is owned by content creators, communities — not certain platforms that control the narratives. This is what Web3 brings us. Decentralization could be the blueprint for the future of social media: Users could have direct access to the decentralized platform; no centralized authority can dictate the rules of engagement and monetization; social media will become a freer space while also granting content creators full ownership of their assets.
Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO) are a novel way for online social organization that will have far-reaching implications. Properties of DAOs are likely to have an enormous impact on the business of social media. Blockchain tokens have the potential to change that arrangement by allowing creators to monetize their fans using many of the same methods that DAOs use to reward their members for contributions.
We have seen pleas from users that Twitter could have the potential to shift the power balance and to be transformed into a Web3 platform. We’re also grateful to see some of the projects, including Only 1 and Rally, are committed to reshaping social platforms and rebuilding the social and creator economy.
Our community needs more builders who have a warm heart and a cool brain. Less FOMO, more patience. And confusion is good: It makes people think of themselves.
Buterin was speaking at the BUIDL Asia conference in Seoul on Wednesday, along with Illia Polosukhin, the co-founder of Near Protocol,to discuss Ethereum’s upcoming Merge.
The Ethereum co-founder argued that centralized stablecoins could be a “significant” decider of which blockchain protocol the industry would “respect” in hard forks.
A hard fork occurs when there is a radical change to the protocol of a blockchain network that effectively results in two versions. Usually, one chain ends up being preferred over another:
“At the moment of the merge, you will have two [separate] networks […] and then you have exchanges, you have Oracle providers, you have stablecoin providers that are kind of deciding in a way, which one they respect.”
“Because at that point, you’ll have 100 billion of USDT on one chain and 100 billion of USDT on the other chain, cryptographically — and so, they [Tether] need to stop respecting one of them,” explained Buterin.
However, Buterin stated he “had not seen any indication” that such a contention would be an issue in Ethereum’s upcoming Merge, noting that the centralized stablecoin issue is more of a concern for future hard forks.
“I think in the further future, that definitely becomes more of a concern. Basically, the fact that USDC’s decision of which chain to consider as Ethereum could become a significant decider in future contentious hard forks.”
He added that in the next five to ten years, Ethereum may see more contentious hard forks where centralized stablecoin providers could carry more weight.
“At that point, maybe the Ethereum foundation will be weaker, maybe the ETH 2 client teams will have more power, and maybe someone like Coinbase, would both run a stablecoin and have bought up one of the client teams by then […] like lots of those kinds of things could happen,” he said.
As a potential antidote to centralized actors, Vitalik proposed opting for different kinds of stablecoins:
“The best answer I can come up with is to encourage the adoption of more kinds of stablecoins. Basically, you know, people could use USDC, but then they could also use DAI and like, at this point, I mean, like DAI has taken this kind of very decisive route of saying ‘we’re not going to be purely crypto economic we’re going to be a wrapper for a whole bunch of real world assets.’”
The Merge is one of the most crucial technical updates to occur with Ethereum since its inception, as it moves from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism.
The Merge is slated to go ahead following the successful integration of the Goerli testnet in mid-August, with Ethereum developers targeting Sept. 19 as the perpetual date for the merger of the current PoW chain to the PoS chain.
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