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Bitcoin

BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face a tough battle near the psychological level of $20,000 as the bulls and the bears attempt to assert their supremacy. Trading firm QCP Capital said in their latest market circular that funding rates on derivatives markets were stable and bearish conditions were fading.

Another ray of hope for the Bitcoin bulls is that Bitcoin miners may be capitulating as the recent decline in the price has made some mining machines unprofitable. Data from Arcane Research shows that public Bitcoin mining companies that had only sold 30% of their mined production from January to April of this year had dumped 100% of their Bitcoin production in May. Some analysts believe that miners giving up was a bullish signal.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, one metric suggests that Bitcoin may not have bottomed out. Historically, Bitcoin signals a bottom when less than 50% of the Bitcoin addresses remain profitable. Glassnode data as of June 20 shows that 56.2% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, increasing concerns of another down leg.

Could Bitcoin and the altcoins sustain the recovery or will bears pull the price lower? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bulls are attempting to start a recovery in Bitcoin but the long wick on the June 21 candlestick suggests that bears are not willing to surrender their advantage.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls are buying the dips to $20,000 on June 22. If the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will try to drive the BTC/USDT pair above $22,000. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($24,076).

This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($28,678).

This bullish view could be negated if the price turns down and breaks below $19,600. That could enhance the prospects of a retest of the June 18 intraday low of $17,622.

ETH/USDT

Ether’s (ETH) bounce off the June 18 intraday low of $881 turned down from $1,194 on June 21, suggesting that bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls don’t not give up much ground from the current level, the ETH/USDT pair could again attempt a rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,368). This is an important level to keep an eye on because bears tend to defend the 20-day EMA during downtrends.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair to $1,000 and then $881. A break below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $1,700.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been sustaining above the crucial support of $211 since June 19 but the bulls are struggling to push the price higher. The long wick on the June 21 candlestick suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bears sink the price below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could decline to $200 and then to the June 18 intraday low of $183. This is an important level to watch out for because if the price dips below it, the pair could plummet to $150.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211 or $200, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the break below $211 may have been a bear trap.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) bounce from the $0.44 to $0.40 support zone fizzled out near the 20-day EMA ($0.51) on June 21. This suggests that the bears continue to defend the level aggressively.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers will now attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they manage to do that, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then slip to $0.33 and later to $0.30.

Alternatively, if the price again rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest that bulls continue to accumulate on dips. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the pair above the moving averages and start a rally to $0.70.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been range-bound between $0.28 and $0.35 for the past few days. This suggests a state of equilibrium between the bulls and the bears.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The longer the time spent inside the range, the stronger will be the breakout from it. If the price continues lower and breaks below the support of the range at $0.28, it could suggest the resumption of the downtrend.

The RSI is showing a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If bulls push the price above $0.35, it will suggest the start of a new up-move. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.41) and later rally to $0.45.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) recovery on June 21 rose above the 20-day EMA ($36) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price remains below the 20-day EMA on June 22 but the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers expect a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($47) where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

Conversely, if the price fails to rise above the 20-day EMA, it could attract profit-booking from short-term traders. That may pull the pair to $30 and later to $27.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) started a recovery on June 19 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on June 21. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA, they could not sustain the higher levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

That may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term bulls and selling by the aggressive bears. The sellers will now attempt to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below $0.06 and challenge the vital support at $0.05.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.06, it will suggest that the sentiment has changed from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could increase the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08).

Related: Bitcoin price wicks below $20K as whales send 50K BTC to exchanges

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) turned down from th 20-day EMA ($8.20) on June 21, suggesting that bears continue to defend the level aggressively. The sellers will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $7.30.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $6.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could start the next leg of the downtrend to $4.23.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $7.30, it will suggest that bulls are trying to form a higher low. That could enhance the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($9.78). If this level is also crossed, the next stop could be $12.44.

LEO/USD

The bulls pushed UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above the resistance line of the descending channel on June 22 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling at higher levels.

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($5.29) has started to turn up and the RSI is near the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price sustains above the channel, it could open the doors for a possible up-move to $6.50.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the channel, traders may book profits and that could pull the LEO/USD pair to the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.

SHIB/USDT

The failure to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below $0.000007 may have tempted short sellers to book profits and aggressive bulls to start buying. That may have resulted in the sharp rally on June 21.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Traders pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.000010) but could not clear the hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.000012). This suggests that bears are defending the level aggressively.

The sellers are attempting to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the recent recovery may have been a bear market rally. The SHIB/USDT pair could then drop toward $0.000007.

The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential trend change.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.



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Bitcoin

Key Bitcoin price metrics say BTC bottomed, but traders still fear a drop to $10K

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The crypto market is currently going through a period of heightened volatility as global economic conditions continue to worsen amid a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates. 

As the headwinds impacting global financial markets beat down all traces of bullish sentiment, many crypto investors are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to as low as $10,000 before a market bottom is found.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

While many traders scoffed at the idea of BTC falling below its 2017 all-time high, the recent dip to $17,600 suggests that this bear market could be different from the last one.

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $10,000 in the next few weeks.

Historic pullbacks point to a low at $10,350

Insight into how BTC may perform in the short-term can be gleaned by looking at its performance during the bear market cycles of 2013 and 2017. In 2013, the maximum drawdown for Bitcoin was 85%, which took place over a period of 407 days. The maximum drawdown in 2017 was 84% and this period lasted for 364 days.

Historical drawdowns for Bitcoin. Source: Arcane Research

According to a recent report by Arcane Research, the current drawdown has been going on for 229 days and has thus far seen a maximum drawdown of 73%.

Arcane Research said,

“If Bitcoin follows the blueprint of these cycles, a bottom should occur sometime in late Q4 2022, at a price as low as $10,350.”

While there is always a chance that an 85% pullback is a possibility, Arcane Research also noted that “Bitcoin is now far more intertwined in the broad financial markets, with the Fed, U.S. elections, crypto regulations and stock market impacting its performance.”

Further evidence that supports the possibility of a drop to the $10,000 range was touched upon by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, who posted the following chart noting that “From a high timeframe market structure perspective, the next place we have to be looking at is $10K–$12K.”

Brave new coin index for Bitcoin (BLX) 1-month chart. Source: Delphi Digital

Based on the chart above, the high timeframe market structure support is likely to exist between $9,500 and $13,500.

Delphi Digital said,

“Coincidentally, this area lines up with the implied low if BTC experiences an 85% drawdown from peak to trough.”

Would $10,000 be a good spot to go long?

Not every analyst expects a drop to $10,000. Take for example, Will Clemente of Blockware Solutions. According to Clemente, Bitcoin’s current range reflects a good spot for accumulation.

Additional data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, balance price and delta price in its bear market floor model align with the 0.6 Mayer Multiple metric analyzed by Clemente.

Bitcoin bear market floor models. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said,

“Only 13 out of 4,360 trading days (0.2%) have ever seen similar circumstances, occurring in just two prior events, Jan 2015 and March 2020. These points are marked in green on the chart.”

Based on the Delta price metric, which still remains untouched, the potential low for BTC is $15,750.

Related: Bitcoin’s short-term price prospects slightly improved, but most traders are far from optimistic

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: Twitter

John Bollinger, the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator also suggested that Bitcoin price may have bottomed.

According to Bollinger:

“Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.



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Bitcoin

Different this time? ‘Almost all’ Bitcoin metrics are now hinting at a price bottom

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Bitcoin (BTC) played wait-and-see with traders on June 28 as Wall Street opened to flat performance.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bollinger eyes “logical place” for Bitcoin bottom

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,000 on Bitstamp, refusing to commit to a firm trend.

The pair nonetheless avoided fresh signs of weakness, leading Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe to believe that an attack on important levels — notably the 200-week moving average near $22,400 — could be next. 

“In the past, Bitcoin has been a steal under its realized price, i.e., aggregate cost basis of all coins in supply. The realized price is currently sitting at around $22,500,” popular trading account Game of Trades added.

While few expected a clear bullish trend to emerge, long-term perspectives also placed importance on current price levels.

Among them was John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, who in a fresh take on BTC/USD flagged the culmination of a trend years in the making.

The next move, he suggested, could well be higher after a “picture perfect” double top pattern on Bitcoin in 2021.

Research: “Almost all” Bitcoin metrics at all-time lows

Further analysis of whether the bottom is in for Bitcoin came from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as the week began.

Related: 3 charts showing this Bitcoin price drop is unlike summer 2021

In its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode dissected a raft of on-chain metrics in various stages of signaling a bottom formation.

In an unprecedented macro environment, however, nothing was certain.

“Within the current macroeconomic framework, all models and historical precedents are likely to be put to the test,” it concluded.

“Based on the current positioning of Bitcoin prices relative to historical floor models, the market is already at an extremely improbable level, with only 0.2% of trading days being in similar circumstances.”

It noted that those who had bought BTC in 2020 and 2021 had provided the driving force behind recent selling.

“Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin, ranging from technical to on-chain, are at all-time lows, coincident with bear market floor formation in previous cycles. Many are trading at levels with just single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels,” the newsletter added.

Sentiment was no different on the day, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 10/100 or “extreme fear,” also constituting a classic reversal level in bear markets gone by.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.



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Bitcoin

Community reacts after SEC’s Gensler affirms BTC’s commodity status

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Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler riled up Crypto Twitter on Monday after affirming that Bitcoin (BTC) is a commodity. Questions were raised about its impact on Grayscales’ proposed Bitcoin ETF and why Ethereum wasn’t mentioned.

Speaking to Jim Cramer on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday, June 27, the SEC chair said while many crypto-financial assets have the key attribute of a security, Bitcoin is the “only one” that he was comfortable publicly labeling as a commodity.

“Some, like Bitcoin — and that’s the only one I’m going to say because I’m not going to talk about any one of these tokens, but my predecessors and others have said they’re a commodity.”

Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

The remarks kicked up chatter about Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) — which is expected to see a yes-or-no decision from the SEC on July 6.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told his 19,300 Twitter followers that while Gensler’s remarks are positive for Bitcoin, it may not be enough to see Grayscale’s Bitcoin-spot ETF approved next week.

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, made similar comments, noting he saw only a 0.5% chance of Grayscale’s GBTC being allowed to convert to an ETF. 

No mention of ETH

Crypto Twitter also picked up on the fact that Gensler refrained from mentioning whether he placed Ethereum (ETH) in the same commodities boat, despite the regulator and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) previously agreeing that the asset was a commodity just like Bitcoin.

Positive for Bitcoin

Nevertheless, Gensler’s views on Bitcoin have been seen as a positive for the king of crypto.

Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor shared the video to his 2.5 million Twitter followers, adding that Bitcoin is essential as a treasury reserve asset, which will allow governments and institutions to support it as a digital asset to grow the economy.

Meanwhile, Eric Weiss, founder of Blockchain Investment Group noted on Twitter that Gensler is the second SEC chair to declare Bitcoin a commodity, making it near impossible for this classification to be altered in the future.

Related: Google users think BTC is dead — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Interestingly, the positive news for Bitcoin resulted in another price decline, falling from a 24-hour high of $21,478 to $20,635 at the time of writing.

Ethereum has fallen from a 24-hour high of $1,234 to $1,171 at the time of writing as the bears retain their grip on the markets.



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