The crypto market is currently going through a period of heightened volatility as global economic conditions continue to worsen amid a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates. 

As the headwinds impacting global financial markets beat down all traces of bullish sentiment, many crypto investors are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to as low as $10,000 before a market bottom is found.

While many traders scoffed at the idea of BTC falling below its 2017 all-time high, the recent dip to $17,600 suggests that this bear market could be different from the last one.

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $10,000 in the next few weeks.

Historic pullbacks point to a low at $10,350

Insight into how BTC may perform in the short-term can be gleaned by looking at its performance during the bear market cycles of 2013 and 2017. In 2013, the maximum drawdown for Bitcoin was 85%, which took place over a period of 407 days. The maximum drawdown in 2017 was 84% and this period lasted for 364 days.

According to a recent report by Arcane Research, the current drawdown has been going on for 229 days and has thus far seen a maximum drawdown of 73%.

Arcane Research said,

“If Bitcoin follows the blueprint of these cycles, a bottom should occur sometime in late Q4 2022, at a price as low as $10,350.”

While there is always a chance that an 85% pullback is a possibility, Arcane Research also noted that “Bitcoin is now far more intertwined in the broad financial markets, with the Fed, U.S. elections, crypto regulations and stock market impacting its performance.”

Further evidence that supports the possibility of a drop to the $10,000 range was touched upon by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, who posted the following chart noting that “From a high timeframe market structure perspective, the next place we have to be looking at is $10K–$12K.”

Based on the chart above, the high timeframe market structure support is likely to exist between $9,500 and $13,500.

Delphi Digital said,

“Coincidentally, this area lines up with the implied low if BTC experiences an 85% drawdown from peak to trough.”

Would $10,000 be a good spot to go long?

Not every analyst expects a drop to $10,000. Take for example, Will Clemente of Blockware Solutions. According to Clemente, Bitcoin’s current range reflects a good spot for accumulation.

Bitcoin is incredibly cheap right now.

It has only traded this far below its 200-day trend and its aggregated cost basis for 3% of its entire existence. pic.twitter.com/kW6BysdkQ0

— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) June 27, 2022

Additional data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, balance price and delta price in its bear market floor model align with the 0.6 Mayer Multiple metric analyzed by Clemente.

Glassnode said,

“Only 13 out of 4,360 trading days (0.2%) have ever seen similar circumstances, occurring in just two prior events, Jan 2015 and March 2020. These points are marked in green on the chart.”

Based on the Delta price metric, which still remains untouched, the potential low for BTC is $15,750.

Related: Bitcoin’s short-term price prospects slightly improved, but most traders are far from optimistic

John Bollinger, the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator also suggested that Bitcoin price may have bottomed.

According to Bollinger:

“Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) played wait-and-see with traders on June 28 as Wall Street opened to flat performance.

Bollinger eyes “logical place” for Bitcoin bottom

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,000 on Bitstamp, refusing to commit to a firm trend.

The pair nonetheless avoided fresh signs of weakness, leading Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe to believe that an attack on important levels — notably the 200-week moving average near $22,400 — could be next. 

#Bitcoin bounced upwards after sweeping the lows at $20.6K.

Honestly, was expecting a further correction towards $20.3K.

Still long on my positions on $FTM, $ADA, $AVAX & $ETH, as I’m still assuming we’ll see continuation towards $22.4K and possibly $23.1K. pic.twitter.com/dbwYQiuZZL

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 28, 2022

“In the past, Bitcoin has been a steal under its realized price, i.e., aggregate cost basis of all coins in supply. The realized price is currently sitting at around $22,500,” popular trading account Game of Trades added.

While few expected a clear bullish trend to emerge, long-term perspectives also placed importance on current price levels.

Among them was John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, who in a fresh take on BTC/USD flagged the culmination of a trend years in the making.

The next move, he suggested, could well be higher after a “picture perfect” double top pattern on Bitcoin in 2021.

Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F

— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022

Research: “Almost all” Bitcoin metrics at all-time lows

Further analysis of whether the bottom is in for Bitcoin came from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as the week began.

Related: 3 charts showing this Bitcoin price drop is unlike summer 2021

In its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode dissected a raft of on-chain metrics in various stages of signaling a bottom formation.

In an unprecedented macro environment, however, nothing was certain.

“Within the current macroeconomic framework, all models and historical precedents are likely to be put to the test,” it concluded.

“Based on the current positioning of Bitcoin prices relative to historical floor models, the market is already at an extremely improbable level, with only 0.2% of trading days being in similar circumstances.”

It noted that those who had bought BTC in 2020 and 2021 had provided the driving force behind recent selling.

“Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin, ranging from technical to on-chain, are at all-time lows, coincident with bear market floor formation in previous cycles. Many are trading at levels with just single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels,” the newsletter added.

Sentiment was no different on the day, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 10/100 or “extreme fear,” also constituting a classic reversal level in bear markets gone by.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler riled up Crypto Twitter on Monday after affirming that Bitcoin (BTC) is a commodity. Questions were raised about its impact on Grayscales’ proposed Bitcoin ETF and why Ethereum wasn’t mentioned.

Speaking to Jim Cramer on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday, June 27, the SEC chair said while many crypto-financial assets have the key attribute of a security, Bitcoin is the “only one” that he was comfortable publicly labeling as a commodity.

“Some, like Bitcoin — and that’s the only one I’m going to say because I’m not going to talk about any one of these tokens, but my predecessors and others have said they’re a commodity.”

Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

The remarks kicked up chatter about Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) — which is expected to see a yes-or-no decision from the SEC on July 6.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told his 19,300 Twitter followers that while Gensler’s remarks are positive for Bitcoin, it may not be enough to see Grayscale’s Bitcoin-spot ETF approved next week.

This isn’t new from Gensler, but definitely positive IMO. Unfortunately this isn’t enough for approval of $GBTC‘s conversion into a spot #Bitcoin ETF. Odds of SEC approval next week (or this week) are near zero in our opinion. https://t.co/mvRnkajGdd

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 27, 2022

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, made similar comments, noting he saw only a 0.5% chance of Grayscale’s GBTC being allowed to convert to an ETF. 

No mention of ETH

Crypto Twitter also picked up on the fact that Gensler refrained from mentioning whether he placed Ethereum (ETH) in the same commodities boat, despite the regulator and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) previously agreeing that the asset was a commodity just like Bitcoin.

Any thoughts on why Gensler didn’t mention Ethereum as a commodity today? https://t.co/GjN5so63O3 #ethereum

— swankyfinance.eth (@swankyfinance) June 28, 2022

Positive for Bitcoin

Nevertheless, Gensler’s views on Bitcoin have been seen as a positive for the king of crypto.

Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor shared the video to his 2.5 million Twitter followers, adding that Bitcoin is essential as a treasury reserve asset, which will allow governments and institutions to support it as a digital asset to grow the economy.

#Bitcoin is a commodity, which is essential for any treasury reserve asset. This allows politicians, agencies, governments, & institutions to support bitcoin as a technology & digital asset to grow the economy and extend property rights & freedom to all. pic.twitter.com/b4WmdSRilb

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) June 27, 2022

Meanwhile, Eric Weiss, founder of Blockchain Investment Group noted on Twitter that Gensler is the second SEC chair to declare Bitcoin a commodity, making it near impossible for this classification to be altered in the future.

Related: Google users think BTC is dead — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Interestingly, the positive news for Bitcoin resulted in another price decline, falling from a 24-hour high of $21,478 to $20,635 at the time of writing.

Ethereum has fallen from a 24-hour high of $1,234 to $1,171 at the time of writing as the bears retain their grip on the markets.