President Joe Biden’s chances of winning this year’s White House race appear to have tumbled in the last few days, with the drop coming after a Republican special counsel’s report described the Democratic incumbent as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”
Biden, 81, and his allies have denounced special counsel Robert Hur’s report, which has been viewed as damaging — intentionally, say Biden allies — to the president’s re-election campaign.
The Democratic president now has a 27% chance of being re-elected in November, according to betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics.
That’s down from 34% in late January and is the lowest level in a year, as shown in the chart above.
To be sure, betting markets got the 2022 midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasons. The clientele for political gambling tends to be right-leaning and male, and betting markets can get caught up in narratives as well as skewed by unreliable polls, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch after those midterms.
Former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the 2024 Republican nominee, has a 44% chance of winning this November’s election, according to the betting markets tracked by RCP.
Trump’s only remaining rival in the GOP presidential primaries, Nikki Haley, is at 3%. Also at 3% are Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, and independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who abandoned his challenge to Biden for the Democratic Party nomination in October.
Former first lady Michelle Obama is at 10%, even as former Obama White House official David Axelrod recently told CNN that she’s “not someone who likes politics,” and it’s about as likely that he’ll be “dancing in the Bolshoi Ballet next year” as seeking elective office.
Former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, on the other hand, has reiterated to Fox News that he believes Michelle Obama could become the Democratic nominee.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is at 8%, even though he has ruled out a 2024 White House run repeatedly.
From the archives (August 2023): Biden’s age is figuring ‘prominently’ in the 2024 White House race — but here’s what the pundits could be getting wrong